HE Wenxuan, LIU Ru, WANG Min, WANG Lina
This paper presents a method for predicting electricity consumption in the production process of steel enterprises using TabNet-XGBoost, aiming to improve prediction accuracy and optimization efficiency. Preprocessing techniques such as data augmentation and outlier handling are employed to enhance model performance. By leveraging the interpretability and feature selection capabilities of the TabNet model, this study identifies key influencing factors for feature selection. Furthermore, Bayesian optimization and grid search methods were applied to fine-tune the hyperparameters of eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), thereby further enhancing the model′s effectiveness. Comparative experiments are also conducted using machine learning models including Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM). The experimental results indicate that CO2 emissions, lagging reactive power, Number of Seconds from Midnight (NSM), weekly status, and specific days of the week are identified as critical predictors. These factors reflect indirect indicators of electricity usage, the efficiency of the power system, potential waste during non-working hours, and cyclical patterns of production activities. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that the TabNet-XGBoost model achieves an MAE of 0.326, RMSE of 1.097, and MAPE of 1.032 on the test set, representing a noticeable improvement in prediction accuracy compared to traditional methods. In summary, the proposed model offers significant advantages in addressing the challenge of electricity consumption prediction in the steel industry′s production process, providing new research insights and technical solutions for related fields.